(Photo courtesy of AMPAS®)
Let’s get down to it — 2019 gave us an unbelievably wild group of nominees. Whatever happens in this year’s Best Picture race, it’s going to be historic. For the first time ever, four films recorded ten or more nominations: 1917, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, and Joker. Only once before had there been more than two films to reach that milestone — in 1964 when Becket, Mary Poppins and eventual winner My Fair Lady all crossed that threshold. Also significant is the fact that all four of the top nominated films are non-indies. That hasn’t happened since the year of Braveheart, 1995. Three of the films are studio releases and The Irishman is distributed by Netflix, a streamer.
Stastically speaking, there are only three films in the running for Best Picture: 1917, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and Parasite. The usual prognostication metrics have become increasingly challenged in recent years, partly because of a huge influx of new Academy members from around the world, but also because of the preferential ballot voting system and, this year, a frenetically shortened voting and campaigning season. How is all this likely to impact the race?
1917 has had the late season momentum, winning the DGA, PGA and BAFTA prizes — but it comes into the awards with no acting nominations, no SAG nominations and a loss to Parasite for the WGA award. In terms of momentum — especially in the shortest Oscar season in history — that suggests a surge in popularity. But its failure to arouse any interest from actors and writers puts it at a numerical disadvantage given that those are historically the largest and most influential branches in the Academy. It’s certainly the one with the traditional Oscar credentials — period, British, war. It would also be the first Best Picture to deal with World War I since Lawrence of Arabia in 1962. A win would also make it back-to-back wins for Universal Pictures, right on the heels of Green Book, which was Universal’s first win since A Beautiful Mind in 2001, ending that studio’s longest-ever Best Picture drought. Since 2001, in fact, only four Best Pictures have gone to studio releases — three from Warner Bros: Million Dollar Baby, The Departed and Argo; and Green Book from Universal.
Parasite is a popular favorite and has been since the Bong Joon-ho-directed film became the first-ever Korean film to capture the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival in May. Foreign language films, however, have had a historically difficult time contending for Best Picture. Recent contenders Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Roma both landed the Best Foreign Language Film award as a consolation — which Parasite is also likely to do. Asian films have also historically had a difficult time even in that category, with only two wins in nearly seventy years. Parasite, which also won the SAG award for best cast ensemble, is a lock for that award — so it’s unlikely it will achieve what Roma and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon could not. But in a wild card year, the preferential ballot — which awards Best Picture based on a numerical ranking system rather than a straight vote — could surprise. If Parasite wins, it would a triumph for upstart distributor NEON and for Bong, shattering a wall that the likes of Akira Kurosawa, Ingmar Bergman, Federico Fellini, Ang Lee, Costa-Gavras and Alfonso Cuaron, among others, have previously failed to do.
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood has not won any of the guild awards that would normally make it an odds-on favorite, but its popularity — and its naval-gazing subject matter — make it a major contender. Quentin Tarantino is a popular auteur, a two-time Oscar-winner, nearing the self-declared end of his career. His film also features two enormously popular stars, pays homage to countless films and Hollywood figures of yesteryear, and also boasts several actresses in the supporting cast who are Hollywood royalty. The preferential ballot, which was introduced in 2009 when the Academy moved to 10 and then “up to” 10 nominees in the Best Picture category, has typically favored “least hated” over “most loved.” This year that could well favor Tarantino’s sentimental valentine to a bygone era that a very large portion of the Academy remembers with great fondness. If it wins, this would be a record 13th Best Picture for Columbia Pictures, breaking a tie at 12 with United Artists. More significantly, it would be the first Best Picture for Columbia since 1987, when Coca Cola owned them. Sony would acquire the company the following year — initiating an embarrassing three-decade drought in the Oscar race for what was, to that point, a prodigious Best Picture winning company. A win here would enable Sony to finally breathe a sigh of relief.
So without further ado — here are my pics as we head into the final stretch:
Best Visual Effects:
Avengers: Endgame – This award has historically not been part of Best Picture sweeps, and that’s likely to be true this year as well since none of the contenders apart from 1917 are effects films. If 1917 does win this, it’s going to suggest a very good night for the film, likely ending with a Best Picture win. More likely is that the highest-grossing film of all time will get a token Oscar acknowledgement of that achievement as did such predecessors as Star Wars and E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial.
Best Costume Design:
Little Women – Period films are historically strong in this category and that gives Greta Gerwig’s umpteenth adaptation of the literary classic an edge. It’s a very deserving winner, but if Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood manages the upset, expect that to be a harbinger of a Best Picture for the Tarantino film.
Best Makeup and Hair:
Bombshell – The last two winners in this category — Vice and The Darkest Hour — both honored the remarkable transformation of male actors into real-life figures. This year is likely to continue that trend by honoring the incredible transformation of Charlize Theron into Megyn Kelly in a film that is otherwise entirely negligible. But Theron’s performance and the makeup and hair that enabled it is a standout. It’s possible that Judy or Joker could upset in this category, but unlikely. Upset winners here tend to be Best Picture contenders, and since neither Judy nor Joker has a shot at the top price, enthusiasm is unlikely to boost them here.
Best Original Song:
(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again from Rocketman – Elton John has been the odds-on favorite here from since before the film was released. Anything else would be the upset of the evening.
Best Original Score:
Hildur Guðnadóttir for Joker – The Icelandic first-time nominee is surrounded by legends: 5-time winner and record 47-time nominee John Williams, 14-time nominee Thomas Newman who holds the record with Alex North for most nominations without a win, Newman’s cousin Randy who has nine nominations without a win in this category (though he has won two for song and is nominated again for song this year), and 11-time nominee (in just 14 years) and 2-time winner Alexandre Desplat, arguably the most dominant A-list composer currently working. Guðnadóttir will win, however, over all these legends because she is a renowned international composer finally hitting her stride on the world stage. She has won every major award coming into the evening, and is bolstered by being a woman in a male-dominated field – only the seventh woman so nominated. To date, the only women who have won Oscars for composing are Anne Dudley and Rachel Portman who captured Oscars in the short-lived Original Musical or Comedy Score category in 1996 and 1997. The category was discontinued after only four years, and to date no woman has won the actual Original Score category. This year will change that. How do we know? Because renowned international composer and conductor, Irish-born Eímear Noone (also a friend of this writer) has been enlisted to conduct a medley of the nominated scores during the awards ceremony, becoming the first-ever woman to conduct an orchestra at the Academy Awards. Such choices are not made blithely — the Academy’s internal polling likely gave them supreme confidence in Guðnadóttir’s likely win, so they elected to bring Eímear Noone in as well to celebrate the milestone. But make no mistake — this will not be a token win. Guðnadóttir is the deserving winner in this category — which, considering the competition, speaks volumes.
Best Production Design:
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – In what looks to be another milestone award for women in the craft and technical categories, Barbara Ling should take this award rather easily. The one thing you can say without any debate about Tarantino’s meticulous period film is that it drips with production design and art direction. Ling didn’t rely on digital tools — she quite literally took entire city blocks of Los Angeles through her own personal time machine. Thousands of Academy members are old enough to “remember when.” They know the locales. They stand in awe. Ling wins this one easily. If she doesn’t, it’s a sure sign the film has no shot at Best Picture.
Best Sound Mixing:
1917 – There is talk about combining the two sound categories — at the urging of the sound branch — because too many people apparently can’t judge the difference between mixing and effects editing. It’s true that the two awards typically go to the same film, but that’s not always the case and it’s quite possible it won’t be the case this year, in large part because there are two very deserving contenders which use sound in very different ways. 1917 is not a great triumph of sound effects editing, but it is supremely well mixed, which helps further the illusion of its “real time” single continuous shot. It’s possible, however, that Ford v. Ferrari takes the award as well if, in fact, voters do have a hard time judging the difference. Either film could win both, or the two films could split the categories. I’m banking on a split with 1917 taking this one and…
Best Sound Editing:
Ford v. Ferrari –…the racing picture taking the other one. While Ford v. Ferrari is also an impressively mixed film, it’s the spectacular sound effects during the racing sequences that make it. Voters are likely to recognize that fact. Especially if they saw the film in an auditorium where it quite literally rocks the house. Again, however, it’s possible that 1917 makes a showing here as well. Both sound categories are effectively a tossup between the two films.
Best Film Editing:
Ford v. Ferrari – This category used to align fairly closely to Best Director, but that alignment started falling apart around 2010. The last few winners — Whiplash, Mad Max: Fury Road, Hacksaw Ridge, Dunkirk, Bohemian Rhapsody — have been about visual sizzle more than Best Picture caliber storytelling. The other four nominees here are all Best Picture nominees with very little editorial sizzle. If past trends hold true, that gives the edge to the racing picture.
Best International Film (Formerly Best Foreign Language Film):
Parasite – Let’s get real – this is as close to a lock as there is. It’s simply not going to be anything else. There’s no point in even discussing it.
Best Live Action Short:
The Neighbor’s Window – Marshall Curry is a three-time nominee in the Documentary category. This is his first narrative short film. As a producer on one of the short-listed shorts that did not make the final five nominees, I’m admittedly not wholly objective here — but I have at least seen all five nominees, which is more than one can say for most voters. And that’s likely to be the deciding factor. Curry is a known quantity, and his is the only film that’s in English. This category has predominantly gone to English-language films, especially in years where there was clearly a superior foreign-language film. In a year that favors women, it’s possible that the Arabic-language Tunisian family drama Brotherhood could upset, or possibly even Daniel Buckley’s Saria, which is based on a real-life tragedy involving Guatemalan orphans. Buckley is also a former nominee in this category as well as a successful feature director (The Bronze) and legendary director of Super Bowl commercials. His credentials and connections are not to be underestimated. But Curry’s film is the more commercial, the more accessible and likely the more widely seen. It should walk away the winner.
Best Documentary Short:
St. Louis Superman – This is a powerful, incredibly well-made documentary about St. Louis rapper and politician Bruce Franks. It’s head and shoulders the best of the five nominees. The Netflix-produced Life Overtakes Me, however, is the most compelling subject matter and Leaning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You’re a Girl) might get some momentum if there’s a broad inclination to honor films by and about women. But on the merits, St. Louis Superman should win this easily.
Best Documentary Feature:
American Factory – This category is notorious for upsets and spoilers (Hoop Dreams and Buena Vista Social Club to name only two that did not win the award). That’s a distinct possibility this year with a field this strong. The Cave and For Sama are both deserving but could cancel each other out as they both deal with women and the Syrian War. Honeyland, which is also nominated for Best International Film, is a potential spoiler as it has been all season. But Netflix exposure and the pedigree of former president and first lady Barak and Michelle Obama, who facilitated this film through their Netflix deal, should give American Factory the edge.
Best Cinematography:
1917 – The legendary Roger Deakins, who finally won his Oscar just two years ago on his 14th nomination, will convert his 15th nomination into a win as well, and not just because of the film’s gimmicky “single take” illusion. This is a genuinely really well shot film. The choreography of the camera to maximize the interaction of the actors is monumentally impressive, and Deakins is beloved by everyone. Many lesser cinematographers already have two or more awards. Deakins surely deserves another, and this is as good an effort as any for which to give him one.
Best Original Screenplay:
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Only Woody Allen has won three Oscars in this category. With another win here, Quentin Tarantino will join him. It’s possible that Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won’s screenplay for Parasite will upset, as it did with the WGA awards, but Quentin’s previous two wins were also upset wins against WGA winners. Whichever film wins this award, expect that to give it momentum toward Best Picture. I’m betting that Quentin’s adoring look at Los Angeles and Filmmaking will hold greater sway with a larger number of Academy voters. It’s hard to imagine the people who gave him Oscars for Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained not considering this effort even more deserving.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi already won the WGA award, and the winner of the WGA award in this category almost always wins the Oscar unless a) they’re against Quentin Tarantino or b) they’re up against the eventual Best Picture winner. This year, those things are all in the Original Screenplay category, so Taika should win here. That said, it’s a divisive film and the fuss over Greta Gerwig not being nominated for director could generate an upset win for Gerwig’s Little Women adaptation. Both screenplays are ambitious and risky. Gerwig’s film is the less endearing, Taika’s is the more divisive. Still, in the wake of the WGA win, Taika has to be seen having the edge.
Best Animated Short:
Hair Love – This isn’t even close. Everyone who’s seen Hair Love sheds a tear. It’s a beautiful short and one of the best nominees in over 20 years. Sister is the only other short that comes close — a Mandarin-language short that packs its own emotional punch. But it’s still not in the same league as Hair Love, which has the added pedigree of being from the people at Sony Animation who also gave us the Oscar-winning Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.
Best Animated Feature:
Toy Story 4 – Because it’s really a charming reboot of the Toy Story franchise, but also because the competition is weak. Voters don’t need to have seen all the nominees here, and it’s unlikely that many will have seen any of the other four, so chalk up another Oscar for Toy Story.
Best Director:
Sam Mendes for 1917 –Since the preferential ballot began in 2009, picture/director splits have become incredibly common, with DGA winners more often signaling the winner in this category and PGA winners more often signaling the winner of Best Picture. This year both DGA and PGA went with 1917, which more or less seals this up for Mendes to take home his second trophy and his first since American Beauty way back in 1999. The only competition here could be from Tarantino, which would pretty much guarantee a Best Picture win for Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. For 1917 to keep its Best Picture hopes alive, however, Mendes must win here. And he almost certainly will.
Best Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern for Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach’s film isn’t going to win anything else, and if Baumbach’s longtime girlfriend Greta Gerwig is also shut out for Little Women, this will be the lone chance for their household to claim some kind of victory. Besides, nobody named “Dern” has ever won an Oscar despite numerous nominations. Laura’s been the odds on favorite all season, and that’s not going to change here. She’s run the table on every other award, including the Spirit Award, SAG and BAFTA — she will now add Oscar gold, too.
Best Supporting Actor:
Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – All four of the acting categories have been a foregone conclusion almost from the get-go. The same four actors have run the table in every competition all season. That won’t change here. Brad Pitt’s terrific turn as an aging stunt man is genuinely one of his best, and he will take home his second Oscar — but first as a performer (the other was as producer of Best Picture 12 Years a Slave) here. He also gives great acceptance speeches — and everyone wants that for the evening’s ratings and highlight reel. Also — the other four nominees in this category already have acting Oscars. It’s time for Brad to win.
Best Actress:
Renée Zellweger for Judy – It doesn’t matter that critics have been dumping on Zellweger’s performance since it came out. It doesn’t matter that her performance as an aging, alcoholic Judy Garland doesn’t hold a candle to Judy Davis’ television performance in 2001’s Life with Judy Garland: Me and My Shadows. It doesn’t matter that hers is arguably the weakest of the five nominees. She’s run the table coming into the evening, along with the other three acting category winners. This will be Zellweger’s first win in this category and second Oscar overall.
Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix for Joker – Eleven years after Heath Ledger’s posthumous Supporting Actor win as the Joker in Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight, Phoenix will take home a lead actor statuette for playing the same character, albeit in a very different way. This is likely to be one of only two awards Joker collects from its field-leading 11 nominations, and being the lead role — it makes sense that this would be the one voters would choose to recognize. Like the likely winners of the other three acting categories, Phoenix has run the table this season, and this is far and away the most acclaimed of the four.
Best Picture:
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – There are any number of reasons that 1917 or Parasite could end up a historic winner here as well. It is an admittedly wide open and fairly unpredictable race for all the reasons aforementioned. But foreign language films and films with anemic support from writers and actors always face an uphill battle. With ten nominations, it’s clear the film has broad support. I’m banking that the nostalgia factor, fondness for Tarantino and his cast, and a very savvy and smart awards campaign will finally pay dividends and give Quentin Tarantino his first Best Picture win for his ninth and, allegedly, second to last film.
If my predictions hold, the evening’s feature film tally will end with:
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – 4
1917 – 3
Ford v. Ferrari – 2
Joker – 2
American Factory – 1
Avengers: Endgame – 1
Bombshell – 1
Jojo Rabbit – 1
Judy – 1
Little Women – 1
Marriage Story – 1
Parasite – 1
Rocketman – 1
Toy Story 4 – 1
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