(Image courtesy of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences)
With only hours to go before the red carpet heats up at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, there remains more uncertainty than not about what is arguably the most volatile field in Oscar history. A handful of awards are believed certain, but many of the top awards, including and especially Best Picture, are considered tossups.
With this special Academy Awards Tomato Slam, the CineGods weigh in with their best and most educated guesses — as well as some added insights as only the CineGods can provide.
WADE MAJOR: I’m going to run down my picks and let the rest of you pick them apart — here’s my epic analysis:
Live Action Short: Fauve, because it’s just damn well done and looks mad professional.
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence because it’s about a taboo topic, and it’s superb.
Animated Short: Bao. Because it’s one of Pixar’s best. And it was conceived and directed by a woman, which would make a statement in the traditionally male field of animation.
Those are the ones that’ll win the Oscar pool. Now for the crafts:
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody. But First Man could be a contender here.
Sound Editing: First Man. Because that’s all the movie is.
Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War. Not because it’s the best. It’s just the most. And man, is it the most…
Song: Shallow. They might as well have just given the award to Gaga and A Star is Born at the time of nomination.
Score: If Beale Street Could Talk should win, but this almost always goes to a Best Picture nominee, which favors Terence Blanchard. Either way, a jazz composer is winning for the first time since Herbie Hancock. My head tells me it’s Blanchard for BlacKkKlansman but I’m going to roll the dice on Beale Street.
Costume: The Favourite. Black Panther is a heavy contender, but genre films that aren’t period tend to have an uphill battle. Period films typically have the edge here, and The Favourite tied for 10 nominations, so it has really broad support especially in the trade and craft categories.
Production Design: The Favourite for all the same reasons as Costume.
Makeup/Hair: Vice because its competition is a foreign film nobody saw and nobody liked, and Mary Queen of Scots which has terrible makeup. Bale looks like Cheney. Done.
Cinematography: Cuaron for Roma. Because it’s not going to win Best Picture, but it will win Foreign Language and Director. That will give Cuaron three awards for one ceremony. That’s putting him in company with Billy Wilder, Peter Jackson, his buddy Iñárritu, Coppola, James Cameron, James L. Brooks and the Coens. A rare group. Nobody has EVER won four awards for a single film in one ceremony, and only Walt Disney has won four at all in a single ceremony. Cuaron isn’t going to be that person because, frankly, Roma isn’t that good.
Editing: This has historically been tied to the Directing trophy, but that trend has deviated of late. Vice is a pretty tricked-up editing job, but nobody likes the movie so I’m going with Bohemian Rhapsody because it’s cut like a music video, and most current voters were weened on MTV.
Foreign Language: Roma. Because it’s not winning Best Picture.
Documentary: Minding the Gap. But Free Solo or RBG could also win here. This tends to be a contrarian award, though, so betting on weighty non-frontrunners makes sense. Minding the Gap is that film. Also superbly made.
Animated: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse. Because it deserves it.
Now the Biggies:
Original Screenplay: The Favourite simply because it has a great 20-year oddysey to the screen. But Paul Schrader could upset and not because First Reformed is great but because he was overlooked even for a nomination for Raging Bull and Taxi Driver. This would be a make-up award in that event. An upset, but not an unexpected one.
Adapted Screenplay: Should go to Can You Ever Forgive Me? but the Schrader factor will play out here for Spike Lee, who’s also been shamefully overlooked. This time, though, he’s not an underdog – BlacKkKlansman is a terrific script that already won screenplay at Cannes. Spike will win this hands down, totally legit.
Supporting Actress: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. She makes the movie. Has maybe the best scene of any nominated performer in any movie. Everyone loves her. She’s been the hardest working actress in Hollywood for over thirty years. She’s so damn due.
Supporting Actor: Nobody has won two of three since Jason Robards in the 70s, and the only other actor to do it at all was Walter Brennan, who won three of five in the 1930s. So that counts out the last two winners, Mahershala Ali and Sam Rockwell. If, however, Mahershala takes this — that heralds huge love for Green Book, signaling that people are pissed he was nominated for supporting when he’s actually lead, and suggesting a wellspring of support for a movie that critics dismissed but which hits a sentimental chord. I think the favorite, though, is the sentimental one: Sam Elliott in A Star is Born. Just to hear that voice accept the statue. Possible spoiler, especially if there’s a split, is Richard E. Grant. Because he’s been beloved since Withnail and I.
Lead Actress: Tough call. Glenn Close is the sentimental favorite. Olivia Colman is the admitted favorite if everyone just votes their conscience. Will sentiment or conscience win out? It’s a tossup. I’ve flipped back and forth on this one. I may change my mind again by Sunday night. But for now I’m going with Glenn Close for The Wife.
Actor: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. Because he deserves it. He’s also a super nice guy who’s politically distanced himself from Bryan Singer. People feel they can award him without awarding Singer, and that in many respects given their acrimony on set, awarding Malek is dissing Singer. That wins the day.
Director: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma. Because he’s not winning Best Picture.
Picture: This is where things get tricky. Bear with me here:
Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice have no path to winning. The former because of Singer, the latter because people hate it. That leaves:
Roma – which could win because it’s a heavy emotional favorite among many people, but which is unlikely to win because it would be the first-ever foreign language film (the previous four nominees for both Picture and Foreign Language have all won the latter), as well as the first film since Braveheart to do so without a PGA win or a SAG Cast nomination. That’s especially harder to do in the preferential ballot era. So I don’t see Roma overcoming that hurdle. In 29 previous Producers Guild ceremonies, they’ve picked Best Picture 20 of 29 times, and they’re 7 or 9 in the era of the preferential ballot. They chose Green Book this year. As for SAG’s Best Cast award, that started in 1995 and has only twice failed to so much as nominate the eventual Best Picture — in 1995, their first year, and then again last year. That’s 21 of 23 Best Pictures that were at least nominated. And in the 9 years since starting the preferential ballot — which is also how the PGA votes — NO FILM has won Best Picture while not winning the PGA or being nominated for SAG’s Cast award. Roma faces long odds there. Also, since 2012, only two Best Directors have won for eventual Best Pictures — the other four were split years. As it happens, one of those splits went to Cuaron. The two Best Directors who won for Best Pictures? His campadres, Del Toro and Iñárritu. Two other factors weighing against Roma: it was financed by Netflix and, as such, had the smallest theatrical footprint and made the least money of the nine nominees. In a year where three of the nominees earned a domestic total of nearly $1.2 billion, driven by clear hopes of improving television viewership among people who feel the Oscars have become “too indie” and “too foreign” and disconnected from average filmgoers… Roma would confirm the feelings of those viewers and filmgoers, doing demonstrable harm to the awards ceremony and the bottom line of the Academy in the process. Academy voters who care only about merit won’t be swayed by such considerations, but where thousands of voters are concerned, many of whom see the health of the Academy and its reputation as inseparable from their mortgage payments — practical considerations factor in.
A Star is Born still has a path because the preferential ballot tends to award the “least hated” film as opposed to most loved. The film isn’t as popular as many expected, but it’s still one of the least hated even among detractors. Whether it has enough love to go over the top is the bigger question. It’s won absolutely none of the awards it was expected to win, but in a volatile year, it still has a chance to exploit a two or three-way split. To do so, however, it would become only the third film in Oscar history to win Best Picture without a director nomination — after Driving Miss Daisy and Argo. Technically Wings and Grand Hotel also fit that mold, but that’s ancient history relative to today’s Oscars. By all relevant modern metrics, that makes it an uphill climb.
The Favourite is my favorite here — and with 10 nominations, it has to be a contender. Also, along with Roma and BlacKkKlansman, it’s one of only three Best Picture nominees with Best Director nominations. Unfortunately, director Yorgos Lanthomos was not nominated by the DGA, and only twice since its first year in 1948 has a Best Picture not even received a DGA nomination for its director — that first year in 1948, and again in the great anomaly year of 1989 and Bruce Beresford’s Driving Miss Daisy. Like A Star is Born, however, it’s won no relevant awards that would make it a statistical contender. So its victory, like that of A Star is Born, would be a function purely of volatility and a split vote. Not impossible, but given how weird and divisive it is, that makes it unlikely. Once again, the preferential ballot favors “least hated” and this has as many high negatives as positives.
BlacKkKlansman will almost certainly win Spike Lee a screenwriting award, so a “spread the wealth” mentality will prevail here and leave it out of the running unless, once again, there’s a volatility-driven split. The same forces that could lead to a Star is Born or The Favourite victory could factor in here. And if voters are in a mood to be political, while also awarding popular filmmaking — this is one of three films that could benefit.
Black Panther is the second of the three that could benefit from a “political and popular” wave. It’s the first comic book film so nominated, and the first Marvel film. It’s also enormously popular generally — over $700 million in domestic earnings — more than Avengers: Infinity War released the same year. If the “practical” considerations described above factor in, this could be a surprise winner — especially in a volatile environment. Weighing against it? No Best Director nomination, no love from any other “predictor awards” except for the SAG Cast award. Also, since 1980, only four domestic box office champions have won Best Picture: Rainman, Forrest Gump, Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King — and in the decade of the preferential ballot, no box office champion has even come close. Also, like The Favourite, it lacked a DGA nomination this year, which is typically a fatal blow.
Green Book has some strong statistics stacked against it — the aforementioned failure to be nominated for Best Director, negative comments from the president of the NAACP timed the week that Oscar voting started, no love from any critics groups and no SAG Cast nomination. But… it did receive a DGA nomination for Peter Farrelly, it won the PGA award and it won the National Board of Review, which last agreed with the PGA in 2008 with eventual winner Slumdog Millionaire. That was admittedly before the preferential ballot, but – once again – in the preferential ballot era the PGA is 7 for 9. Green Book also won the Toronto Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award, which isn’t a great predictor of eventual winners, but it has been a predictor of several noteworthy winners in recent years — Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech and 12 Years a Slave — which, along with the other aforementioned metrics, quite likely gives it the edge in a volatile year. So my choice here is Green Book. By a very shaky, controversial nose.
Okay. Now you guys tell me where I’m wrong.
TIM COGSHELL: That is a lot of analysis sir.
I was literally on the Oscar red carpet today, knocking off a few stand-ups for our guy at KNBC, and I cannot go that hard on each of these categories. Still… it’s mostly opinions anyway, so screw it…
Shorts – Bao is the only one I saw (during The Incredibles 2 release), I know why people love it but it mostly creep’d me out. Readers will need to see it understand why, but suffice it to say Bao is a dumpling (and metaphorical off-spring of a human), and humans eat dumplings, eventually.
Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, etc… sure to all those; Bohemian or First Man. And you’re right, Wade, sound is all that First Man – is. Of course, all the techniques used to bring that sound to life is a little old-school these days. Raging Bull did all that back in the day: lion roars and airplane engines, even an elephant stampede. All interesting, but I don’t really care about the “how” of it.
The sound editing and mixing are solid… those two movies will split those awards between them.
Now Score – that interests me. If Beale Street Could Talk should win…” Yep, sir, you said it and it’s true. I love the BlacKkKlansman score that Terence conceived, but my second choice is actually the Black Panther score by Ludwig Goransson. It’s for a much bigger film with many more themes and emotional beats to account for and it achieves them all beautifully.
I’m good with the Swedish dude winning.
Costume and Production Design – Black Panther on the Production Design side and Ruth Carter (who has been designing for Spike for years) for BlacKkKlansman, both categories for which black folks have opportunities to win awards that black folks have never won before – and the up their rates. Which is why this matters, most. Winners get to up their rates. Which means they get to accumulate more wealth and more opportunities – and deservedly so, because the work is amazing.
The Cinematography moment with the academy was amazing. That the academy seriously considered excluding cinematography (and editing) from the broadcast, is astounding. Films were silent for a decade before sound, give or take a few experiments. That was just stupid.
But, whatever… Roma and The Favourite and Cold War are the best shot films. Cold War is the best of them all.
Skipping to docs. The Mister Rogers movie… seriously, not even nominated. So, Minding the Gap and Hail County…, are the most penetrating of the bunch. But… Shirkers… not nominated. So…
Animated feature… Spider-verse. Nuff said.
Original Screenplay: First Reformed because the Academy is perpetually guilty for screw-ups. Raging Bull and Taxi Driver among them.
Supporting Actress: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. She’s the James Brown of Hollywood actresses… hardest working, indeed.
Supporting Actor: Mahershala for Green Book, ridiculous, but likely. MICHEAL B. JORDAN, not nominated for Black Panther. His Killmonger is on par what Heath’s Joker was in The Dark Knight. He was amazing but, Sam Elliott will win.
Lead Actress: Glenn Close or Olivia Coleman… I’m with Glenn.
Actor: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. Dumb, but obvious.
Director: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma. “Because he’s not winning Best Picture.” So says “WaMa” and it’s plenty likely. But… Spike. Possibly, maybe, because BlacKkKlansman is not winning best picture, either.
Best Picture:
“Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice have no path to winning.” I hope so, because that would be dumb.
Roma has a problem, that Best Foreign Picture nom is the problem. It will destroy its Best Picture shot.
Green Book is the Driving Miss Daisy of this year. Ironies abound, but I’ll skip them for now. Suffice it to say, Spike Lee and his Do the Right Thing are relevant from the Oscars of 1989.
Last time, Driving Miss Daisy won.
Best Director; Cuaron, Cooper, the Greek guy… no. Ryan Coogler should have be nominated for Black Panther… Deborah Granick for Without a Trace, I can go on. But who will win?
Rooting for… Spike.
RAY GREENE: I want to zoom in on Roma for a minute, because to me the most salient thing about that movie is that it’s a Netflix Original, even though they bought it rather than made it. It’s already functioned as a referendum on the Netflix attitude toward the theatrical moviegoing experience, which everyone has always (correctly) assumed is hostile. Netflix doesn’t see its business model as amenable to a world where I can walk out of a screening they benefit from and into one that benefits the Walt Disney Company–they want us to all stay within their gated and walled community gorging ourselves at the visual buffet until our eyeballs vomit. This is why ROMA has had the most apathetic theatrical release pattern of any acclaimed film in recent memory, even as some thirty million has been spent to position it for the Oscars.
What e’ve learned though is that Netflix cares about the Academy Award. Deeply. So now the question becomes, “Why?”
I suspect this has to do with power dynamics essentially–that to win the most coveted award there is away from the studio system that created it would be one more sign of the era of Netflix dominance. I personally think that dominance may prove paper thin once Disney and Warner Bros. get their Netflix competitor services up in the next two years, because I don’t think anybody has a real commitment to Netflix as a brand, the way they do to Disney, Pixar or Marvel. But it’s Netflix’s hour now, and that’s what Roma‘s startling nominations performance portends–the fact that the movie is a near masterpiece becomes almost incidental.
What we’re about to learn–at least possibly–is how Hollywood feels about Netflix. Because even though there’s some sort of belief in the press that there is some sort of grudge against Netflix as a corrupted streaming service that menaces the theatrical experience, in my experience, something like 80 percent of the people who make movies would kill for a Netflix deal–you can see this even if you’re a layperson by the migration of A-list acting talent to the Netflix fold, frequently with mixed or career damaging results (Brad Pitt, I’m looking at you).
The EXHIBITORS hate Netflix and rightly view their fight as an existential one. But they don’t vote for the Oscars, and they haven’t had a notable presence at the awards since the flamboyant Jack Valenti died. If Roma wins an Oscar for Best Picture, it will clearly demonstrate that at least the working folk within the industry don’t see a damn bit of difference between a Netflix movie and a major theatrical release, and that truly will be a watershed moment.
My own theory is that about eight percent of the Academy membership is seething with anger at Netflix for damaging the theatrical experience and disrupting the predictable profits that had endured since the rise of the VHS video cassette and the DVD. If I’m right, Roma loses. Because in a race with this many jockeys, an eight percent “never Netflix” protest vote is too big a hurdle for Netflix to overcome.
MARK KEIZER: Because the world hardly needs one more Oscar prognostication, let me start with another kind of prediction: this year’s Academy Awards telecast will rate higher than last year’s all-time low (26.5M viewers) but will only temporarily stave off Oscar’s decline in cultural relevance. Along with civil discourse and empathy, the slow, tragic death of the Oscars aches with significance. It’s more crime scene evidence that we’re losing our ability to connect, in a meaningful way, with other people. And the Oscars, in a meaningless way, is meaningful. It’s fun and harmless and it brings people together to express spirited, firmly held opinions (without the rage-filled, red-meat tossing, cable news-style burlesque) that exalt or belittle, romanticize or criticize some diverting new star in the pop culture firmament, whether it’s Black Panther, Moonlight, Angelina Jolie’s leg-baring Oscar dress from 2012 or the Academy Awards telecast itself. We love the movies because, as said too many times before, sitting in a darkened theater with hundreds of strangers (or dozens if you’re a Gerard Butler film) sharing an emotional experience is like nothing else. But not caring about the Oscars because you’d rather sit home and binge-watch Russian Doll or scroll mindlessly through your Instagram feed is indicative of the culture we’re becoming: isolated, narcissistic, dismissive and lonely. To say it’s up to Black Panther and A Star is Born to reverse this trend is unfair to those worthy films. But both represent what the Academy feels would reverse its declining fortunes: artistic and monetary successes that get 18-34 year olds to care whether Lady Gaga wins a Best Actress Oscar (she won’t).
And while I’m loath to introduce this topic, today’s political environment, a ravenous beast that will not let us enjoy one God damn slice of innocuous pop culture without rearing its thick head, is also having an insidious effect on the Oscars. Would Damien Chazelle’s First Man have been a more financial (and therefore more awards-worthy) success had conservative media not manufactured a cause in the film’s lack of rah-rah Americanism? Would Vice have been nominated for a completely uncalled-for 8 Academy Awards were it not a MAD Magazine takedown of a liberal bogeyman? Did millions of Americans rush to their favorite partisan comment board when 2018 Oscar winner Frances McDormand forced the term “inclusion rider” into the national lexicon? Films today, to no one’s benefit, routinely become chum for the swarming sharks who read (if not wholly invent) insidious, partisan intent into non-partisan films whose only purpose is artistic expression and profit. Those who benefit from manufactured outrage and who righteously revel in their anger are happy about this. The rest of us mourn for a simpler time.
Five years ago, I was afraid the Oscars would be replaced in our collective American consciousness by nothing. Now I’m afraid the Oscars are being replaced in our collective consciousness by Netflix. The Oscars are deathly afraid of this, too. And they should be. That said, Roma’s Best Picture nomination actually demonstrates the Academy at its best: putting aside its reservations and being honor-bound to acknowledge the most artistically worthwhile theatrically-released films of a particular year. Roma not winning Best Picture will demonstrate the Academy at its most wary and defensive: they can admit the film was great but they didn’t like its unmannerly nomination-begging theatrical release and they’re not ready to anoint this historically, shockingly, blindingly successful disruptor the ultimate seat at the table. Roma winning Best Foreign Film maintains a shaky status quo, one that acknowledges the quality of films it’s willing to spend its fortune on and the money it blithely throws around to filmmakers. Marking a ballot for Roma as Best Picture, especially for an old guard Academy member, would be tantamount to the studios surrendering their 120-year monopoly on the motion picture business to some impudent, new money punk trying to buy his way into high society.
The saddest part is that by Monday morning, most people outside the industry bubble will have forgotten who won anything, save for whatever wardrobe malfunction becomes a meme, a snackable piece of content or whatever term you’d like to use that distills 3-hours of glamorous, laborious live television into a 2-second GIF you can watch while sitting on the toilet. But that’s who we’re becoming: a “what’s next” society that will only, on rare occasions, find a reason to drill a hole through our heavily fortified biases, our social media-fueled blinders and our wariness of others and just enjoy something because it’s, you know, awesome. To end this rant on a positive note, as of this writing, the next awesome thing is a movie: Avengers: Endgame. Let’s hope Captain America and company can, at least temporarily, save not just the universe but the positive, unifying and, damn it all, just fun, collective American pop culture experience.
As for the awards, here are some thoughts on selected categories. Please don’t use them to inform your Oscar ballot. I’m horrible at all forms of competition including badminton, Fortnight, bowling and Madden Football. As an additional aside, here are two pieces of free advice to consider when filling our your ballots:
· Don’t pick the person or film you want to win. Who you want to win is irrelevant. Pick the person or film who will win.
· Take into consideration who has won the bellwether guild awards, most notably the PGA Awards and the DGA Awards. They are both good predictors.
And on that note…
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing: these sometimes go to the same film (recent examples: Inception, Hugo, Gravity, Mad Max: Fury Road and Dunkirk) and they often go to the loudest film. The most deserving in both categories is First Man. Sound was practically a character in the film, an enveloping demon and constant reminder that death was only one loose rivet away. But Bohemian Rhapsody will take both.
Visual Effects: Mark down Avengers: Infinity War for this one. Unless you want to pick Christopher Robin just to be different (and miss a “gimme” in your Oscar pool).
Original Song: Shallow. The biggest “no, duh” of the entire evening.
Score: Some good work here, but since we’re long past the John Williams-era of hummable scores, it’s hard to get passionate about any of these. That said, Nicholas Britell’s main theme for If Beale Street Could Talk, with its velvety, mournful strings was gorgeous…and repeated ad nauseam until I got sick of it. The only other contender here is Terence Blanchard for BlacKkKlansman. My gut is the Academy will respond to Britell’s more traditional, lustrous music.
Costume: I’m going with The Favourite. Period dramas are catnip in these craft categories.
Production Design: The Favourite will probably take this, too, but I’m hoping for a Black Panther upset. Not enough talk has been given to the world-building that accounted for a good portion of Black Panther’s success. It had a fully formed, specific and unique sense of place and production designer Ruth E. Carter should be rewarded for that.
Cinematography: Cold War was my favorite film of last year, so I’m rooting for it. But I get the sense the Academy is in the mood to make history: no one has ever won a Cinematography Oscar for a film they also directed…until Sunday night, when Alfonso Cuarón and Roma win for Best Cinematography.
Foreign Language Film: Here’s where it gets interesting. While I would laugh in uproarious derision if Roma won both Foreign Language and Best Picture, it won’t happen. Roma’s big prize will be Foreign Language. That said, all five Foreign Language nominees are excellent and worthy seeking out. It feels good to say that because it’s not always true.
Editing: Vice would seem to have the edge here. Much of the film’s power and attitude was found in the edit. But I echo Wade. If the film was better-liked or the Academy felt comfortable making a brash political statement Sunday night (or risking a politically charged acceptable speech), Vice would win. But Bohemian Rhapsody will take it.
Documentary: Again, here’s where the Academy decides if it wants to give it to RGB and have half the country turn the channel. If RGB wins, it will be for purely political reasons. It’s a fine documentary but it’s not the achievement in footage gathering, editing or storytelling that is Minding the Gap, my choice for winner. Or Hale County This Morning, This Evening. Note: how about a write-in vote for Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Animated: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse. Another gimme.
Original Screenplay: The Favourite. It’s the most delicious, witty and unique screenplay nominated. The only other possibility is the Academy giving longtime listener, first-time caller, Paul Schrader his very own Oscar after years of hackwork on films like Taxi Driver and Raging Bull. But don’t count on it.
Adapted Screenplay: I loved the script for Can You Ever Forgive Me? with its clean lines, spicy dialogue and unlikeably likeable characters. But dammit, it’s time for Spike Lee to win something and this is it. He won’t win for Best Director or Best Picture, but he will win for this.
Supporting Actress: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. Another gimme.
Supporting Actor: a horserace between Mahershala Ali and Richard E. Grant. Both give the very definition of a great supporting performance: they spur the main character along on their journey, they give the main character someone to whom they can articulate their thoughts and they introduce obstacles that challenge the main character. I’m going for Richard E. Grant because a) Ali won two years ago and b) Grant’s Barbra Streisand idolatry became a story, no coincidence here, at the height of awards season, which will resonate with older members of the Academy. That said, if Ali wins here, get ready for a Green Book kinda night.
Best Actress: what looked like an Olivia Colman shoo-in (my goodness she was great in The Favourite) is now becoming a Glenn Close “it’s her time”, sentimental favorite award. It seems Colman might have peaked too soon, giving Close the edge. For those who care, Lady Gaga has no chance. She’s being overly praised because she wasn’t terrible. Quite good is being artificially inflated into amazing. Gaga still needs training and more work with great directors. She’s not there yet. Let’s all calm down.
Best Actor: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. I’m not a big fan of the movie, but I was a fan of Malek for not only keeping his focus during the whole Bryan Singer mess but also doing his level best to not bury the darker aspects of Freddie Mercury’s life and personality. If the script had been tougher on Mercury, this would have been a no-brainer for Malek. As is, the Academy seems to like this guy and, as a bonus, a win for the former star of Mr. Robot will keep the younger demo from checking their phones for another ten minutes.
Director: If Spike Lee wins this award, I’d be so damn happy. Please, Academy, make this happen. But assuming he won’t, it’ll be Alfonso Cuarón for Roma. It’s an extremely personal project, which counts for a lot. Plus, he won the DGA prize this year, which really counts for a lot. I love Cuarón but go, Spike!
Best Picture:
Black Panther – An important film. A socially impactful film. A boundary breaking film. A terrific film. But not best picture, unless you ignore all the guild and craft awards it didn’t win and assume the Academy will give it best picture to keep the demo happy and make a socio-political statement.
BlacKkKlansman – Next to Cold War, my favorite film of the year. But it just doesn’t have the requisite level of Best Picture love or momentum.
Bohemian Rhapsody – I don’t see how this happens.
The Favourite – I love and adore this film. In a just world, it wins Best Picture. But, as Wade noted, director Yorgos Lanthomos was not nominated for the Directors Guild Award. Plus, the movie failed to pull ahead of the pack and take advantage of a best picture race with no frontrunner and very little passionate buzz. In another year, this could have won.
Roma – Best Foreign Language is this film’s prize.
A Star Is Born – This film went from 60-to-0 in about 2 weeks. Its Golden Globes snub really hurt. Plus, much of the film’s effect derived from it being way, way better than anyone expected. Now that the surprise has worn down and it’s not the shiny, new penny anymore, expectations are falling more into line.
Vice – I dare anyone to check this on their Oscar ballot for Best Picture.
Green Book – Your winner, despite director Peter Farrelly apologizing for past sexual misconduct, despite star Viggo Mortensen apologizing for using a racial slur during a Green Book Q&A and despite producer and co-writer Nick Vallelonga apologizing for a 2015 Islamophobic tweet. If the Academy wants to send an inclusion message this year, they’re gonna pick an odd film to do it with.
But seriously, what kind of creative achievement is Green Book? A directing achievement? Hardly. The only notable thing comedy director Peter Farrelly brought to this film was steering Viggo Mortensen to the very edge of parody with his ridiculous Bronx accent. Was this a writing achievement? Hardly. Has anyone thought for one second that Green Book will win for Best Original Screenplay? An acting achievement? Sure, more than anything. So I’ll trade you Mortensen and Ali winning their respective categories for The Favourite winning Best Picture. But no, the Academy will consider Green Book the least objectionable option, one they can live with, one that checks the right boxes…and one that will have no life after the champagne at the Vanity Fair Oscar party, itself becoming a dinosaur, goes flat.
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